Murphy's Law
#interesting-stuff #math-to-live-by
Murphy’s law simply states that “if anything can possibly go wrong, it will, and at the worst possible time”, which make sense.
Joel Pel have come up with a mathematical formulation of Murphy’s Law that goes like this:
$$P_{M}=-K_{M}\left(e^{-\frac{I \cdot C \cdot U+F}{F_{M}}}-1\right)$$
in which:
- $P_M$ refers to Murphy’s probability, viz. the probability that something goes wrong
- $K_M$ is Murphy’s constant
- $F_M$ refers to murphy’s factor, a very small number
- $I$, $C$, $U$ and $F$ are descriptors of the situation on a 1-10 scale
- $I$ measures the importance of the event’s outcome
- $C$ refers to the system’s complexity
- $U$ measures urgency
- $F$ is the frequency of executing the event
References:
- Pel, Joel. ‘The Murphy’s Law Equation’. The Science Creative Quarterly, 21 May 2007, https://www.scq.ubc.ca/the-murphys-law-equation/.