Murphy's Law

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Murphy’s law simply states that “if anything can possibly go wrong, it will, and at the worst possible time”, which make sense.

Joel Pel have come up with a mathematical formulation of Murphy’s Law that goes like this:

$$P_{M}=-K_{M}\left(e^{-\frac{I \cdot C \cdot U+F}{F_{M}}}-1\right)$$

in which:

• $P_M$ refers to Murphy’s probability, viz. the probability that something goes wrong
• $K_M$ is Murphy’s constant
• $F_M$ refers to murphy’s factor, a very small number
• $I$, $C$, $U$ and $F$ are descriptors of the situation on a 1-10 scale
  • $I$ measures the importance of the event’s outcome
  • $C$ refers to the system’s complexity
  • $U$ measures urgency
  • $F$ is the frequency of executing the event

References:

1. Pel, Joel. ‘The Murphy’s Law Equation’. The Science Creative Quarterly, 21 May 2007, https://www.scq.ubc.ca/the-murphys-law-equation/.